Arsenal v Ipswich

There's a good preview over at The Seventy Two for this match so I'll only add a few things to that.

Firstly, lots of people will have the same 5 players, as the other preview rightly points out, most pickers will have an all Arsenal Big Game team tonight. Almost everyone will have, quite sensibly, Fabregas and Nasri in their team. I expect the majority then to have 3 from Denilson, the full-backs, Wilshire/Arshavin/Rosicky and Chamakh/van Persie depending on who starts.

Looking at the averages Denilson and the full-backs would probably be my pick. I'm concerned though that I'll end up with a 10% share of the top prize as there'll be plenty of others with the same idea. So, here's a few scenarios that could give you an edge:

1. Pick a sub - it doesn't happen often but sometimes a sub can come on, score, and force themselves into the top 5. Fabregas did it against Leeds when he came on after 59 minutes and scored a late pen. He pipped both Schmeichel and Denilson by a point to be the 5th highest points scorer.
Imagine if Arsenal are 3-0 up after an hour and Wenger hauls off a few stars to rest them - could someone come off the bench, with the game stretched, and score?

2. Drop Fabregas - As mentioned above star players may get subbed if the game gets wrapped up early. This would give some of the 'boring' picks a chance to catch up. Or maybe a penalty miss and a yellow card? Or an injury? All of which have happened in the past.

3. Pick a centre back - often overlooked when the game is predicted to be one sided but they can pick up a steady amount of points. Djourou has got 3 of his highest 5 scores in comfortable victories, 4-0, 4-1 and 5-1. Admittedly he finished Arsenal's 5th, 6th and 8th top scorer but it would only take a yellow card or a sub or two (for someone else...) to get him in at 5th. Plus there's always the chance of a set-piece goal if Ipswich give plenty of free-kicks away.

Now I'm not strongly recommending any of the above as they're low probability punts. The best tactic is always to work out who the goalscorers will be and then add them to a Fabregas/Nasri/Denilson combo or similar. But then that's harder said than done.

My pick will probably be something like Sagna, Nasri, Fabregas, van Persie and Denilson with one of those probably swapped for someone more random just before kick-off.

Good luck!

by BensBulls
(Ben Wraith)