Arsenal v Ipswich

There's a good preview over at The Seventy Two for this match so I'll only add a few things to that.

Firstly, lots of people will have the same 5 players, as the other preview rightly points out, most pickers will have an all Arsenal Big Game team tonight. Almost everyone will have, quite sensibly, Fabregas and Nasri in their team. I expect the majority then to have 3 from Denilson, the full-backs, Wilshire/Arshavin/Rosicky and Chamakh/van Persie depending on who starts.

Looking at the averages Denilson and the full-backs would probably be my pick. I'm concerned though that I'll end up with a 10% share of the top prize as there'll be plenty of others with the same idea. So, here's a few scenarios that could give you an edge:

1. Pick a sub - it doesn't happen often but sometimes a sub can come on, score, and force themselves into the top 5. Fabregas did it against Leeds when he came on after 59 minutes and scored a late pen. He pipped both Schmeichel and Denilson by a point to be the 5th highest points scorer.
Imagine if Arsenal are 3-0 up after an hour and Wenger hauls off a few stars to rest them - could someone come off the bench, with the game stretched, and score?

2. Drop Fabregas - As mentioned above star players may get subbed if the game gets wrapped up early. This would give some of the 'boring' picks a chance to catch up. Or maybe a penalty miss and a yellow card? Or an injury? All of which have happened in the past.

3. Pick a centre back - often overlooked when the game is predicted to be one sided but they can pick up a steady amount of points. Djourou has got 3 of his highest 5 scores in comfortable victories, 4-0, 4-1 and 5-1. Admittedly he finished Arsenal's 5th, 6th and 8th top scorer but it would only take a yellow card or a sub or two (for someone else...) to get him in at 5th. Plus there's always the chance of a set-piece goal if Ipswich give plenty of free-kicks away.

Now I'm not strongly recommending any of the above as they're low probability punts. The best tactic is always to work out who the goalscorers will be and then add them to a Fabregas/Nasri/Denilson combo or similar. But then that's harder said than done.

My pick will probably be something like Sagna, Nasri, Fabregas, van Persie and Denilson with one of those probably swapped for someone more random just before kick-off.

Good luck!

by BensBulls
(Ben Wraith)

Bolton v Chelsea

Two out of form clubs meet at the Reebok tonight but Chelsea at least have history in their favour. The Londoners are unbeaten in Bolton for over 13 years and also won the reverse fixture 1 - 0 in December. However Chelsea have won only 2 from their last 10 and are vulnerable and again missing Picklive star Frank Lampard. Bolton haven't won in 2011 and are a pretty poor Picklive team to boot. Could the new scoring system or new signing David Wheater give them a lift?

Wolves v Liverpool

Wolves are unbeaten in 6 home games against Liverpool, have won 4 of their last 8 league games and are coming into this game off a comfortable 5-0 win over Doncaster in the FA Cup. Liverpool on the other hand have an atrocious away record, picking up just 5 points on the road, and are struggling to convert the Dalglish hype into results.

New Year. New Scores.

We've had 6 matches since the new scoring system was introduced and we're beginning to see the effects.


The first match was in the FA Cup, Arsenal at home to Leeds, and the highest 5 scorers were Arshavin, Eboue, Bendtner, Gibbs and Fabregas - which, barn-door Bendtner apart, wouldn't have been far off a strong Big Game before the changes. Fabregas sneaked into the top 5 with a goal but the next two, Denilson and Leeds keeper Schmeichel, were also unsurprising. Perhaps the biggest lesson learned from this first game under the new regime was that even woefully out of form players like Arshavin and Bendtner are worth a sniff as you still get 5 points if a shot hits the corner flag.
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Chelsea-Villa stats

• Villa have won only one of their last six against Chelsea - a 2-1 home win last season
• Chelsea won this fixture 7-1 last season - Villa's biggest PL defeat at the time (they also lost 6-0 at Newcastle since then). 
• Villa have won none of their last 8 at Stamford Bridge and lost six of them. 
• Lampard has scored 9 goals against Villa - more than against any other opponent in the PL
• The Villans have lost five of their last six away matches. They have only scored one goal in their last five league away matches. 
• After scoring 27 goals in their opening 10 matches, Chelsea have only scored six in their last nine.
• The Blues have not scored more than once in the league since October. 
• Chelsea begin the New Year in 4th place - their lowest position on January 1 in nine years since they were sixth in the table on New Year’s Day 2002.
• Chelsea have conceded only 4 goals at home this season - fewest in the division. 
• Villa  begin the New Year in 15^th place in the division – their lowest position in the PL on January 1 in 16 years since they were in 20^th place on New Year’s Day 1995.
• Villa are without a clean sheet in their last nine PL matches, conceding 14 goals in their last five.
• They have p
  icked up four away points this season – equal-fewest away points in the division with Wolves.