Picklive Cup QFs

Wildheart FC vs Chelman 42 – it doesn’t get much bigger than this one! The top two in the all-time standings. Combined they have amassed over 48,000 points from 3,500 games. Chelman may have a higher all-time average than Wildheart, but it is Wildheart who has been putting in the big scores for the cup (see below). Wildheart featured in a tight first round scoring 54 (the same score as his opponent Neds XI) – fortunately for him his second highest score of 49 was enough for him to progress. Wildheart looks to be in good form with a fantastic 94 in the Barcelona-Arsenal match. Chelman had a good 1^st and 3^rd round but almost suffered a surprised defeat at the hands of AFC Van der Gam in r2 – he scraped through by 3 points with a 28.

Ivar the Engine vs Farmersjuice – Ivar is in great form recently putting in some big numbers, notably his 77 in the Wolves-Spurs match – the highest score in the last round of the cup. Farmersjuice will likely have to improve on his 51 from the last round  to progress – the lowest scoring winner of the round of 16.

The rams are going up vs Fisherman’s Spurs – The Rams is a new picklive member but he has been cruising through the cup, outscoring his opponents by at least 20 points in his three matches. He has been very consistent scoring 52, 50 and 44 but may have to score over 60 to beat Fisherman. Fisherman had a difficult start to the cup, scraping through with a 14 and a 12 but since then has improved.

Grunny27 vs PAFC – Grunny was fortunate in the first two rounds that his low scores were enough for him to progress. His second round tie against Bensbulls promised to be a close one – both registered scores of 25 but grunny’s 2^nd score of 24 was good enough for him to advance into the 3^rd round. PAFC, like ‘the rams’ has cruised through to the QFs winning his ties by a minimum of 18 points. His opponents really have not put up much of a fight – the highest score he has faced so far was a 12 in r2. Hopefully I will be more difficult for him! I expect it will be very close.

Good luck to everyone!

All-time points per game

Chelman 42                                     14.8

Grunny27                                        14.4

PAFC                                              13.6

Fisherman’s Spurs                           13.3

Wildheart FC                                   13.2

The rams are going up                     11.9

farmersjuice                                     10.8

Ivar the Engine                                N/A

March ppg

Ivar the engine                                 17.6

Grunny27                                        16.5

Fisherman’s spurs                            15.5

Chelman 42                                     14.7

PAFC                                              14.3

Wildheart FC                                   13.5

Farmersjuice                                    12.4

The rams are going up                     11.2

Picklive cup scores                      r3            r2            r1            average

Wildheart                                    69            54           54            59

Ivar                                             77            22            51           50           

The rams                                     52            50           44            48.7

Chelman                                     66            28            48           47.3

Fisherman                                   62            36           14            37.3

PAFC                                         59            30            20           36.3

Grunny                                       59            25            23           35.7

Farmersjuice                               51            24            24           33

Arsenal-Barcelona THE STATS

Head to head

• Arsenal have not beaten FC Barcelona in five previous meetings (all CL). The Catalans won three and two matches were drawn.
• Last season, these sides met in the QF. The 1st leg at the Emirates finished 2-2 and Barça won the return 4-1, courtesy of 4 goals by Messi. He was the 6th player in CL history to score four foals in a match.
• There have been red cards in three of the five matches between Barcelona and Arsenal.

Arsenal

• No team from continental Europe has won away at Arsenal in the CL since Inter beat the Gunners 3-0 in September 2003 - a run of 36 games with the only defeats coming against English sides (Chelsea and Manchester Utd).
• Scored at least twice in their last 8 CL home matches, equalling an all-time CL record which is jointly held by Real Madrid (Sep 1997 - Dec 1998) and Man United (Sep 1999 - Oct 2000)
• They have been awarded a penalty in each of their last four CL home matches.
• RvP has scored 12 of 13 CL goals at home. 4 of his last 5 CL goals were penalties.
• Kept just one clean sheet in their last 8 CL games.

Barcelona

• Messi has scored 13 goals in his last 11 Champions League starts including four in one game against Arsenal.
• They had the tightest defence in the group stage, allowing their opponents just 8 shots on target against them.
• Messi needs one more goal to become Barça’s out right top scorer in European competitions. He and Rivaldo both have 31.
• Lost only one of their last 15 CL matches (9-5-1). That defeat was in last season’s SF at Inter (3-1).
• Barça have scored in the last 14 CL matches which is the longest running streak in the competition. The last time the Catalans did not score was at Rubin Kazan on 4 November 2009 (0-0).

Picklive Cup - what are the odds?

The first round of the first ever Picklive Cup saw some strong teams knocked out and some intriguing ties thrown up in the second round.

 Shock of the first round was Villarthebest (3rd in the all-time table) crashing out to K&KFC. Another big name to fall was Abervilla (8th all-time), more understandably knocked out by giant and legend Chelman42 in the tie of the round. Other names lost at the first hurdle included (very) occasional FC Roger contributor Warriors plus Neds XI, who lost out to behemoth Wildheart FC in another glamour tie.

So with 32 (actually 33 atm) left in it who will be proudly clad in Picklive polyester come the final?

With no apologies for accidental exclusions, poor formatting or prehistoric use of statistics I present the form book. Looking at the last months stats I've calculated the average points per plays (PpP):

Marcus Speller Forever              15.79
Invincibles                                  12.52
The Rams Are Going Up           12.38
Chelman42                                 12.13
Grunny27                                   11.76
Portydown                                  11.63
Wrideos                                      11.36
Teenage Mutant Ninja Skrtels    10.65
Wildheart FC                              10.44
Fisherman’s Spurs                      10.27
PAFC                                          10.17
Holters Mews FC                         7.67

At the bottom of the pile is Holters Mews FC and they'll have to raise their game to get past Wildheart FC. Marcus Speller Forever is on a strong run of form and must fancy his chances against Ivar the Engine in the second. But lets have a look at the Champions League form:

Invincibles                                22.29
Gobzmacked                             21.42
Ivar the Engine                         21.19
AC Alittlesilhouetteof Milan    19.82
Chelman42                                18.87
PAFC                                        18.24
Wildheart FC                            17.87
Grunny27                                  17.56
CMFC                                       16.77
Portydown                                16.68
Bensbulls                                  16.49
Fisherman’s Spurs                    15.47
Fritzl FC                                   13.47

All of a sudden Ivar the Engine looks a sterner test. He's one of the three teams maintaining a 20+ average in the Champions League. The other two are drawn together in round 2. If Gobzmacked can get past Gmansenior in a replay Invincibles will face a tough game.

And finally lets have a look at the all-time table:

Chelman42                                15.16
AC Alittlesilhouetteof Milan    14.84
Bensbulls                                  14.71
Grunny27                                  14.69
Footlikeatractionengine            14.59
Gobzmacked                             14.50
CMFC                                       14.47
PAFC                                         13.82
Wildheart FC                             13.26
WayneH FC                               13.20
Fisherman’s Spurs                     13.07
Invincibles                                 12.93
Portydown                                 12.67
Farmersjuice                              10.67

Already flagged by Picklive is myself versus fellow FC Roger contributor Grunny27. And a look at the averages shows why, both of us within a whisker of each others PpP. Unfortunately for me, Simon is in much better form at the moment. Another quick look at the fixtures shows another veteren clash: AC Alittlesilhouetteof Milan v Portydown - another big name will fall at the second hurdle.

My dark horses would have to be WayneH FC and Teenage Mutant Ninja Skrtels, both have posted big scores recently.

Who do you fancy for the Cup?


by BensBulls

Bolton v Everton

Bolton's record over the last nine matches against Everton reads 1-2-6. They've also lost five of their last seven matches in the league. Add to that a truly atrocious Picklive Points to Possession ratio and it's very difficult to make a case for including any Trotters in your Big Game team.

But lets try. Daniel Sturridge has scored in the last two games and a goal today could get him towards the top of the points list in what will likely be a low scoring game in Picklive terms. Kevin Davies is similar in that he'll need to score to trouble the judges. Otherwise Robinson has the highest average and Taylor & Petrov might be worth picking if they could stay on the pitch for the full 90. For more detail have a look at this post about the Chelsea game,  although I can't see the Toffees putting four goals away today.

Everton are a much stronger Picklive team than Bolton despite being lower in the league. They're also easier to pick from as they have an amazingly strong core trio: Baines, Fellaini and Arteta. Distin, with 51.6, is the fourth strongest but has an average of over 17 points less than each of the top three (nb. Bolton's top two, Robinson and Cahill, have 54 and 44 respectively). Arteta hasn't been as impressive in his last few Picklive appearances but it will be a very brave player to drop any of that blue trio.

The key for this match is to find the right pair to fill the last two spots. Both goalkeepers have had impressive performances recently, Beckford and Sturridge have scored in recent weeks and Cahill and Distin are both solid point scorers if there aren't many goals. If Taylor and Petrov start there's a chance one of them will stay the course and post a decent score. Likewise Bilyaletdinov if he starts.

Recommendations: Unsurprisingly I'm going for Baines, Fellaini and almost certainly Arteta. Distin and Sturridge are my fancy for 4 and 5 but I'll be waiting for the starting line-ups before committing.

Good luck!

by BensBulls

Denmark-England stats

Head to head 

• Denmark have won the last two international matches against England – scoring seven goals and conceding three in the process. Both were friendly matches.
• The last time they met in August 2005, Denmark triumphed 4-1 in Copenhagen in one of only two occasions that England have conceded four or more goals since 1980.

Denmark 

• They have not won any of their last four friendly matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), since a 2-0 home win against Senegal in May 2010.
• Six players from their squad play in the PL - Thomas Sørensen (Stoke City), Anders Lindegaard (Man United), Lars Jacobsen (West Ham), Nicklas Bendtner (Arsenal), Daniel Agger and Christian Poulsen (both Liverpool).

England

• England have not won in their last 8 matches against Scandinavian opposition in Scandinavia (5 defeats). Their last victory was a 2-1 friendly win against Finland in Helsinki in June 1992. David Platt scored both goals.
• Fabio Capello has won 22 of his 33 matches in charge – the same number as Ron Greenwood won in his first 33 matches as England manager (1977-80). Only Walter Winterbottom (24 wins) from 1946-50 picked up more wins in their first 33 matches.
• If they lose today it will be the first time they have lost back-to-back international matches in almost 18 years – since a 2-0 WCQ defeat against Norway in Oslo and 2-0 defeat against USA in Foxboro in June 1993.
• They are one short of 150 clean sheets away from home in international football. They have currently kept 149 clean sheets in 417 away matches.
• If Rooney scores he will move into the top ten of goal scorers in England’s history with 27 goals – level with David Platt in 10th place. He has played twice against Denmark and scored once in both matches – but lost on both occasions.
• Won just four of their 14 opening games in a calendar year since 1997, with all four of those victories coming at home. 
• Conceded exactly one goal in six of their last seven friendly internationals and haven't kept a clean sheet in a friendly since a 4-0 win in Slovakia in March 2009.
• Lampard will captain England for the first time. Of the last six players to captain England, four have lost their opening match.

WestBrom v Wigan

A quick post tonight - both teams are in dire form so hopefully, using reverse sods law, this should be a cracker.

There could be a few goals tonight as the likes of Vela, Odemwinge and Rodallega will go up against two poor defences. I'll be basing my strategy on that assumption and going for goals.

McCarthy and Brunt should make up the goal of most Big Game teams. I'll then go for Mulumbu, Dorrans and/or Alcaraz leaving one place for a striker - I fancy Vela for a debut goal tonight.

Recommendations: 3 or 4 West Brom players as they keep the ball better than Wigan do. McCarthy & Brunt should be the bedrock of a good Big Game team.

Good luck!

by BensBulls
(Ben Wraith)

Arsenal v Ipswich

There's a good preview over at The Seventy Two for this match so I'll only add a few things to that.

Firstly, lots of people will have the same 5 players, as the other preview rightly points out, most pickers will have an all Arsenal Big Game team tonight. Almost everyone will have, quite sensibly, Fabregas and Nasri in their team. I expect the majority then to have 3 from Denilson, the full-backs, Wilshire/Arshavin/Rosicky and Chamakh/van Persie depending on who starts.

Looking at the averages Denilson and the full-backs would probably be my pick. I'm concerned though that I'll end up with a 10% share of the top prize as there'll be plenty of others with the same idea. So, here's a few scenarios that could give you an edge:

1. Pick a sub - it doesn't happen often but sometimes a sub can come on, score, and force themselves into the top 5. Fabregas did it against Leeds when he came on after 59 minutes and scored a late pen. He pipped both Schmeichel and Denilson by a point to be the 5th highest points scorer.
Imagine if Arsenal are 3-0 up after an hour and Wenger hauls off a few stars to rest them - could someone come off the bench, with the game stretched, and score?

2. Drop Fabregas - As mentioned above star players may get subbed if the game gets wrapped up early. This would give some of the 'boring' picks a chance to catch up. Or maybe a penalty miss and a yellow card? Or an injury? All of which have happened in the past.

3. Pick a centre back - often overlooked when the game is predicted to be one sided but they can pick up a steady amount of points. Djourou has got 3 of his highest 5 scores in comfortable victories, 4-0, 4-1 and 5-1. Admittedly he finished Arsenal's 5th, 6th and 8th top scorer but it would only take a yellow card or a sub or two (for someone else...) to get him in at 5th. Plus there's always the chance of a set-piece goal if Ipswich give plenty of free-kicks away.

Now I'm not strongly recommending any of the above as they're low probability punts. The best tactic is always to work out who the goalscorers will be and then add them to a Fabregas/Nasri/Denilson combo or similar. But then that's harder said than done.

My pick will probably be something like Sagna, Nasri, Fabregas, van Persie and Denilson with one of those probably swapped for someone more random just before kick-off.

Good luck!

by BensBulls
(Ben Wraith)