I'll be backing Bolton to get at least a draw in this match but can't recommend picking more than one player for your Big Game 5 this lunchtime.
The reason is simply that Bolton don't convert possession into Picklive points. In their last Picklive game at home to Liverpool they shared the possession 50/50 but yet, as a team, scored only 389 points. This equates to just 43% of the total points for that game (excluding goals/assists and cards) as Liverpool scored 507. This is borne out by only Paul Robinson making the top 5 scorers. And it's the full-back who I recommend again this time.
Spurs recorded 542 points away to Man Utd. on 52% of the possession. Man Utd., on 48%, edged them with 563 points. The points split then was 51/49 in favour of the home team. So, although Spurs didn't convert their possession at the rate United did they certainly didn't perform as poorly as Bolton.
Spurs and Bolton were, in the examples above, scoring at a rate of 10.4 and 7.8 points per percentage point of possession. Which means that if they performed in the same manner today and possession was equal then the total points would be Bolton 389, Spurs 520. All of which is a long winded way of saying pick at least 4 Spurs players...
There's obviously other factors to consider, the above doesn't take into account cards, assists or goals so you would need to make your own assumptions about those. So, if you fancy a Kevin Davies hat-trick or a Spurs red card you might want to pick two Bolton players.
Tips: Robinson from Bolton and then Assou-Ekotto, Modric and two others from Spurs.
Good luck!
by BensBulls
(Ben Wraith)
Saturday, 6 November 2010
Friday, 5 November 2010
Rochdale/FCUnited
Without any stats and very little personal knowledge I'm loathe to write much at all about tonights match. Rochdale average 54% possession at home in League One. So, they should acheive at least that against FC United of Manchester...
Therefore I would recommend 4 or 5 Rochdale players for the big 5 including at least the Captain & top-scorer Gary Jones.
Good luck!
by BensBulls
Therefore I would recommend 4 or 5 Rochdale players for the big 5 including at least the Captain & top-scorer Gary Jones.
Good luck!
by BensBulls
Thursday, 4 November 2010
Liverpool/Napoli
There haven't been many Liverpool home games on Picklive recently (1 in the last 8) so I'm looking right back to the game against Steaua Bucharest for inspiration. In that match Spearing and Meireles dominated the passing with 63 and 62 completed passes respectively. Picking central midfielders in Liverpool games seems to be a no-brainer when you also look at Lucas against Bolton, Meireles and Gerrard against Everton or Poulsen against Man Utd.
So, the centre of the Liverpool midfield should cover at least 2 and possibly 3 (if Gerrard is played further forward) of your picks tonight. I would would advise looking at the back four for the other picks. Both Konchesky and Johnson have excellent average scores for Liverpool and should be considered. Plus one of the centre backs often feature high up the points table e.g. Skrtel against Napoli.
Campagnaro (63 cp) and Pazienza (60) dominated Napoli's passing in the reverse fixture and so should be considered if you think Napoli will see a fair bit of the ball.
Tips: Three or four from Liverpoool including both central midfielders plus at least one insurance pick from Napoli.
So, the centre of the Liverpool midfield should cover at least 2 and possibly 3 (if Gerrard is played further forward) of your picks tonight. I would would advise looking at the back four for the other picks. Both Konchesky and Johnson have excellent average scores for Liverpool and should be considered. Plus one of the centre backs often feature high up the points table e.g. Skrtel against Napoli.
Campagnaro (63 cp) and Pazienza (60) dominated Napoli's passing in the reverse fixture and so should be considered if you think Napoli will see a fair bit of the ball.
Tips: Three or four from Liverpoool including both central midfielders plus at least one insurance pick from Napoli.
Wednesday, 3 November 2010
Chelsea/SpartakMoscow
Spartak had 4 of the top 5 players in the last match between these two sides but that's unlikely to happen at the Bridge. Spartak dominated their home match against Zilina but then swapped roles away to Marseille. So, based on that limited evidence, I would expect Chelsea to dominate possession with Spartak looking to hit them on the break.
If Chelsea get an early goal then Spartak may have to change tactics and keep/win the ball more. For that reason I'm recommending including at least one player from the Russian side. Sheshukov and Makeev have been two of the most frequent passers in the two Champions League outings before the Chelsea game and so both represent a safe pick.
Malouda being out at least eases the difficulty in picking Chelsea players. Mikel, Essien and Cole are usually in the mix with Malouda and should be carefully considered. Other than that I would recommend waiting for the starting line-ups and matching it to one of Chelsea's previous Picklive outings.
Tips: Sheshukov or Makeev plus Essien, Mikel, Cole and one other (probably from Drogba, Terry, Zhirkov or Ferreira)
If Chelsea get an early goal then Spartak may have to change tactics and keep/win the ball more. For that reason I'm recommending including at least one player from the Russian side. Sheshukov and Makeev have been two of the most frequent passers in the two Champions League outings before the Chelsea game and so both represent a safe pick.
Malouda being out at least eases the difficulty in picking Chelsea players. Mikel, Essien and Cole are usually in the mix with Malouda and should be carefully considered. Other than that I would recommend waiting for the starting line-ups and matching it to one of Chelsea's previous Picklive outings.
Tips: Sheshukov or Makeev plus Essien, Mikel, Cole and one other (probably from Drogba, Terry, Zhirkov or Ferreira)
Tuesday, 2 November 2010
Spurs/Inter
4 strong candidates from each team will make getting the balance right the key tonight. Bale, Modric, van der Vaart and Assou-Ekotto are the four outstanding Spurs players and it will be difficult narrowing that selection down.
Zanetti and Sneijder seem to be the pick for Inter although Maicon and Lucio may see more of the action if Spurs can control the match. Coutinho not starting at least narrows the choice slightly.
Tips: Assou-Ekotto and Zanetti would seem to be safe bets and then it's just a case of getting the flair picks right. Apart from the players mentioned above it may be worth considering Huddlestone if you fancy Spurs to dominate the midfield or Eto'o if you fancy several Inter goals. Personally I'll be sticking to 5 of the 8 highlighted above.
Good luck!
by BensBulls
(Ben Wraith)
Zanetti and Sneijder seem to be the pick for Inter although Maicon and Lucio may see more of the action if Spurs can control the match. Coutinho not starting at least narrows the choice slightly.
Tips: Assou-Ekotto and Zanetti would seem to be safe bets and then it's just a case of getting the flair picks right. Apart from the players mentioned above it may be worth considering Huddlestone if you fancy Spurs to dominate the midfield or Eto'o if you fancy several Inter goals. Personally I'll be sticking to 5 of the 8 highlighted above.
Good luck!
by BensBulls
(Ben Wraith)
RubinKazan/Panathinaikos
I'm not going to pretend that I know much about either of these teams but there's an excellent article about the last game on the fantastic Zonalmarking site here. It mentions that Rubin like to build from the back so their centre backs may be worth picking. Which is also borne out by the passing stats from the previous match on the UEFA Match Centre here.
In fact those latter stats give a good basis for making your picks tonight. Both sets of centre backs were amongst the most frequent passers. Panathinaikos pair Sarriegi and Boumsong completed 54 and 52 passes respectively - the basis of a very respectable Picklive score. Rubin's back four plus midfielder Natcho made up the away teams top 5 passers.
Rubin had slightly more of the possession in the last game so I'm assuming that they will do so again. Therefore I'll be picking 3 or 4 Rubin players tonight although I may make room (due to a soft spot) for Gilberto Silva who, if he starts, may help Panathinaikos retain the ball.
Tips: Bocchetti, Natcho and Sarriegi.
By Bens Bulls
(Ben Wraith)
In fact those latter stats give a good basis for making your picks tonight. Both sets of centre backs were amongst the most frequent passers. Panathinaikos pair Sarriegi and Boumsong completed 54 and 52 passes respectively - the basis of a very respectable Picklive score. Rubin's back four plus midfielder Natcho made up the away teams top 5 passers.
Rubin had slightly more of the possession in the last game so I'm assuming that they will do so again. Therefore I'll be picking 3 or 4 Rubin players tonight although I may make room (due to a soft spot) for Gilberto Silva who, if he starts, may help Panathinaikos retain the ball.
Tips: Bocchetti, Natcho and Sarriegi.
By Bens Bulls
(Ben Wraith)
Monday, 1 November 2010
Blackpool/WestBrom
West Brom have enjoyed large amounts of possession in their last two away games in the Premier League. They had 50% of possession at Old Trafford and 51% against Arsenal. Blackpool also seem to retain the ball well, they enjoyed 55% possession at home to Man City and 53% against Blackburn.
If Blackpool can maintain their possession rate then it'll be best to pick 3 Tangerines. If West Brom can get approx. 50% then it won't matter which way you split your 5 (although a 3/2 split, either way, would tend to be better than a 4/1 or 5/0).
Crainey and Adam are first on my list for Blackpool having scored 315 points between them in their last two Picklive appearances. Vaughan pips Eardley for me for the third spot as I fancy Blackpool to do a little more attacking than West Brom. For the same reason I'll be going for Jara and Mulumbu rather than Brunt or Morrison. Tamas and Shorey are decent contenders too.
Update: Adam is a major injury doubt so I'll be waiting until near kick-off to finalise my line-up. If Adam doesn't start then I'll be picking 3 West Brom players such is the Captain's importance to Blackpool.
If Blackpool can maintain their possession rate then it'll be best to pick 3 Tangerines. If West Brom can get approx. 50% then it won't matter which way you split your 5 (although a 3/2 split, either way, would tend to be better than a 4/1 or 5/0).
Crainey and Adam are first on my list for Blackpool having scored 315 points between them in their last two Picklive appearances. Vaughan pips Eardley for me for the third spot as I fancy Blackpool to do a little more attacking than West Brom. For the same reason I'll be going for Jara and Mulumbu rather than Brunt or Morrison. Tamas and Shorey are decent contenders too.
Update: Adam is a major injury doubt so I'll be waiting until near kick-off to finalise my line-up. If Adam doesn't start then I'll be picking 3 West Brom players such is the Captain's importance to Blackpool.
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