Bolton/Spurs

I'll be backing Bolton to get at least a draw in this match but can't recommend picking more than one player for your Big Game 5 this lunchtime.

The reason is simply that Bolton don't convert possession into Picklive points. In their last Picklive game at home to Liverpool they shared the possession 50/50 but yet, as a team, scored only 389 points. This equates to just 43% of the total points for that game (excluding goals/assists and cards) as Liverpool scored 507. This is borne out by only Paul Robinson making the top 5 scorers. And it's the full-back who I recommend again this time.

Spurs recorded 542 points away to Man Utd. on 52% of the possession. Man Utd., on 48%, edged them with 563 points. The points split then was 51/49 in favour of the home team. So, although Spurs didn't convert their possession at the rate United did they certainly didn't perform as poorly as Bolton.

Spurs and Bolton were, in the examples above, scoring at a rate of 10.4 and 7.8 points per percentage point of possession. Which means that if they performed in the same manner today and possession was equal then the total points would be Bolton 389, Spurs 520. All of which is a long winded way of saying pick at least 4 Spurs players...

There's obviously other factors to consider, the above doesn't take into account cards, assists or goals so you would need to make your own assumptions about those. So, if you fancy a Kevin Davies hat-trick or a Spurs red card you might want to pick two Bolton players.

Tips: Robinson from Bolton and then Assou-Ekotto, Modric and two others from Spurs.

Good luck!

by BensBulls
(Ben Wraith)